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With Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death, there is uncertainty about who is currently leading Iran.
The assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by the United States and Israel has left a void of power within the heart of the Iranian government, leading to a difficult search for his replacement.
In almost fifty years, the Islamic Republic has only seen one change in its supreme leader. Khamenei took over from Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989 and did not name a successor before his death.
On Sunday, a group of three individuals was established to temporarily lead in place of Khamenei until a new successor is selected. However, with the continued US-Israeli strikes happening, it is uncertain how long this interim leadership will last.
Here is some information that you should be aware of.
Currently, a three-person leadership council is governing in Iran until a new supreme leader is appointed as per the constitution. This council consists of the president, Masoud Pezeshkian, the head of judiciary, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, and a senior cleric, Alireza Arafi.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the influential speaker of Iran's parliament, stated that the government had anticipated and made plans for the current situation.
He expressed that the creation of a leadership council would lead to a substantial increase in power and unity.
The bombing attacks on Saturday resulted in the deaths of many top military leaders in Iran, including their chief of staff, the commander of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, and the Defense Council secretary. Israel says that a large number of Iran's senior military officials were killed in the strikes.
After Khomeini passed away in 1989, Khamenei was quickly appointed as his successor without the need for a transition council. However, due to continuous US-Israeli strikes, the process of naming Khamenei's successor is expected to be delayed.
Before a permanent council is established, the current temporary council needs to choose whether to keep allowing Ali Larijani, Iran's top national security official, and Ghalibaf to make decisions regarding defense. These two men, along with Shamkhani who was a former navy rear admiral killed in recent strikes, were in charge of leading Iran's defense during the 12-day war with Israel in June.
The new leader will be chosen by a group of 88 senior clerics called the Assembly of Experts to replace Khamenei.
Every eight years, the Iranian public elects members of the Assembly of Experts, who are then scrutinized by the Guardian Council – a group of 12 legal experts that monitors the parliament's actions in Iran.
During times of stability, the Guardian Council reviews legislation from the parliament to ensure it aligns with sharia law, often requesting changes. The council also gives its approval for candidates running for parliament, the presidency, and the Assembly of Experts.
The Guardian Council has a reputation for eliminating potential candidates for the position of president. In preparation for the 2021 election, more than 600 individuals were deemed ineligible by the council, which included all female candidates and notable figures like Larijani, a high-ranking national security official.
According to Sanam Vakil, who is in charge of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, the Assembly of Experts may not meet until the US and Israel stop their activities. She stated that they cannot afford to put the institution at risk of more harm and casualties. This was mentioned during an interview with CNN.
Which individuals are competing for power?
Mojtaba, the second son of Khamenei, is an important figure who has close connections to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Basij, a volunteer paramilitary force in Iran. However, since the Shiite clerical establishment came to power by replacing the Iranian monarchy, they may not want a continuation of father-to-son succession.
Alireza Arafi, a Shiite cleric, was recently added to the transition council. He has been appointed to high-ranking positions by Khamenei and is considered a serious candidate. Arafi serves as the deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts and is part of the Guardian Council, which allows him to approve his own candidacy. Additionally, he is in charge of Iran's seminary system.
Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri is a candidate for the Assembly of Experts and is aligned with the conservative section of the clerical establishment. Another candidate in the running is Hassan Khomeini, a grandson of Khomeini who is considered to be less rigid in his beliefs compared to others.
Surprises could still happen in the regime's decision-making process, such as choosing a younger or less famous individual, or even forming a leadership council instead of appointing a single person.
According to Vakil from Chatham House, the conflict between strict conservatives and reformists will likely persist even after Khamenei's passing.
She mentioned that changes in leadership often benefit conservative and security-focused groups in the beginning. Discussions about the country's future are probably taking place among a small, select group rather than in the public eye. Reform-minded politicians should seize this opportunity if they want to make a difference.
Discussing the possibility of a change in government leadership, US President Donald Trump encouraged the people of Iran to rise up against their government. In a video on Truth Social, he advised the Iranians to seize the opportunity to take control of their own government, stating it may be their only chance for many years. Trump also warned the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) to surrender their weapons or risk facing fatal consequences.
As of now, even though there have been some instances of festivities, there is not much indication that Iranians are engaging in street protests to overthrow the remaining parts of the government. Additionally, there is no evidence of high-ranking officials within the security forces defecting. Trump mentioned to CBS News that there are potential leaders who could replace the current regime, although he did not specify who they are.
Reza Pahlavi, the oldest son of the former shah of Iran who was removed from power during the 1979 revolution, is being considered as a possible future leader. Pahlavi was only 16 years old when his father was overthrown, and he has been residing in the United States ever since. Some analysts believe that he may have support from Israel.
However, a hindrance is the absence of a replacement force ready to assume control in Iran, as noted by David Petraeus, a retired General in the US Army and former Director of the CIA.
According to Petraeus, the difficulty lies in the fact that there is no prominent leader like Ahmed al-Sharaa in Syria, who had a strong military force and was able to overthrow the weakened regime of Bashar al-Assad in 2024.
Robin Wright, a writer for the New Yorker, has spoken with Khamenei, and she mentioned to CNN that Iran has many young leaders like Nelson Mandela, but lacks a well-established organization like the African National Congress in South Africa. Unlike South Africa, Iran has not had the time to form a strong infrastructure, define an alternative to their current system, or determine who would lead such a movement.
In Iran currently, power is expected to be wielded by the IRGC, as many leaders in the country have been removed. The IRGC has been supporting the regime for many years and is accountable only to the supreme leader. Their role includes not only fighting external threats but also maintaining control within Iran.
The IRGC's influence goes beyond just its military strength. A lot of Iran's wealthy individuals, who have profited from having access to the government's centers of authority during times of sanctions, have key roles within the IRGC. This could give the IRGC substantial power in the selection of the next supreme leader.
The IRGC, also known as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, was formed to protect the Islamic revolution and the government that resulted from it. Several paramilitary groups that were involved in overthrowing the shah of Iran came together to form the IRGC after 1979. Despite early efforts to integrate it into the national army, the IRGC solidified its influence during its participation in the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s.
Currently, the military force consists of approximately 150,000 to 190,000 soldiers. It includes branches such as the army, navy, air force, and intelligence division, and it has integrated into various sectors of Iran's economy.
Despite the assumption that numerous high-ranking officials of the organization were killed in the recent attacks, the IRGC continues to be in charge of the Basij, a group that functions similar to a local law enforcement agency by patrolling the streets and handling domestic matters.
The Basij, a volunteer group, is named after the meaning "mobilization" in Farsi. It recruits members from different parts of the country, particularly those from lower-income and more traditional backgrounds. Their main roles include supporting the government and promoting Islamic values in society.
In a time of great danger, the Iranian government is working swiftly and secretly to maintain unity and show that they are still operating smoothly, according to Vakil from Chatham House. It is uncertain if their actions will be effective.
Leila Gharagozlou from CNN provided information for this report.
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