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With the death of the supreme leader in Iran, questions arise about who is currently in charge of the country
The assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by the United States and Israel has left a gap in leadership within the Iranian government, leading to the search for his replacement.
Since nearly fifty years ago, the Islamic Republic has only had one new supreme leader. Khamenei took over after Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989, and he died without naming a successor.
On Sunday, a council with three members was established to govern until a successor to Khamenei is selected. However, the duration of this interim period is uncertain due to the ongoing US-Israeli strikes.
Here's the information you should be aware of.
At the moment, a three-person leadership council is in control according to Iran's constitution until a new supreme leader is chosen. This council consists of the moderate president, Masoud Pezeshkian, the hard-line head of the judiciary, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, and a senior cleric, Alireza Arafi.
Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, expressed confidence in the regime's readiness for any situation, stating that they had taken necessary precautions and preparations for such moments.
He mentioned that the creation of a leadership council will bring about a remarkable strength and unity.
Unexpectedly, Iran has suffered the loss of a number of high-ranking officials simultaneously. Israel has reported that many of Iran's top military leaders were killed in airstrikes on Saturday. This includes Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi, the Chief of Staff of the armed forces; Major General Mohammad Pakpour, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps; and Ali Shamkhani, the Secretary of Iran's Defense Council.
After Khomeini's death in 1989, Khamenei was quickly named as his successor without the need for a transition council, due to the Iran-Iraq War lasting most of the decade. However, with ongoing US-Israeli strikes, the process of naming Khamenei's successor is expected to take longer.
Before then, the temporary council needs to make a decision on whether to keep allowing Ali Larijani, Iran's chief national security official, and Ghalibaf to handle defense decisions. Both men were in charge of Iran's defense during the 12-day conflict with Israel in June, along with Shamkhani, a former navy rear admiral who died in the recent attacks on Saturday.
The new leader will be chosen by a group of 88 senior clerics called the Assembly of Experts instead of by a single individual.
Every eight years, the Iranian public elects the members of the Assembly of Experts. These members are carefully reviewed and approved by the Guardian Council, a group of 12 legal experts responsible for monitoring the activities of Iran's parliament.
During regular circumstances, the Guardian Council reviews legislation passed by the parliament to ensure it follows sharia law and may request changes. It is also responsible for vetting candidates for parliament, the presidency, and the Assembly of Experts.
This organization is infamous for excluding individuals from running for president. Before the 2021 election, the Guardian Council rejected more than 600 applicants, which included all female candidates and well-known figures like Larijani, who held a high-ranking national security position.
According to Sanam Vakil, who is the head of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, the Assembly of Experts may not meet until the US and Israel stop their activities. She stated that they do not want to risk more harm to the institution in terms of casualties and destruction.
Which individuals are competing for power? Mojtaba, the second son of Khamenei, is an important figure with close connections to the IRGC and Basij. However, the Shiite clerical establishment, which overthrew the Iranian monarchy, may not prefer a hereditary transfer of power from father to son.
Alireza Arafi, a Shiite religious leader, was chosen to be part of the transition council on Sunday. He has held important positions appointed by Khamenei and is considered a powerful candidate. Arafi serves as the deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts and is a member of the Guardian Council, allowing him to review his own candidacy. Additionally, he is in charge of Iran's seminary system.
One of the candidates in the Assembly of Experts is Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri, who aligns with the conservative faction of the clerical establishment. Another potential candidate is Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Khomeini and perceived to be more moderate compared to his counterparts.
There is a possibility of unexpected outcomes. The government might choose a younger and less famous individual, or possibly a group of leaders instead of just one person.
According to Vakil from Chatham House, the conflict between those who hold rigid beliefs and those who advocate for change will not end when Khamenei passes away.
According to her, times of leadership change usually benefit more conservative and security-focused groups, at least in the beginning. Discussions about the country's future are likely taking place behind closed doors among a select group of influential individuals, rather than in the public eye. For politicians looking to make reforms, this is a crucial moment where they must act decisively.
US President Donald Trump encouraged the people of Iran to seize control of their government and make it their own in a video posted on Truth Social. He also warned the IRGC to surrender their weapons or face grave consequences.
As of now, there have been some instances of celebration but it doesn't seem like Iranians are protesting on the streets to overthrow the remaining part of the regime. Similarly, there haven't been any indications of elites within the security establishment defecting. Trump mentioned to CBS News that there are potential candidates to assume power, without specifying any names.
After the overthrow of his father in the 1979 revolution, Reza Pahlavi, the oldest son of the former shah of Iran, has been considered as a possible future leader. Pahlavi, who was just 16 at the time of his father's removal, has been residing in the United States since then. Speculation has arisen that he may have support from Israel.
One issue that arises is the lack of another opposing force ready to assume control in Iran, according to David Petraeus, a former US Army general and ex-CIA director.
Petraeus told CNN that the challenge in this situation is the absence of a strong military leader like Ahmed al-Sharaa in Syria, who was able to overthrow Bashar al-Assad's regime in 2024.
Robin Wright, a writer who contributes to the New Yorker and has interviewed Khamenei, stated in an interview with CNN that while Iran has many young individuals striving for change, they lack an organized opposition group comparable to the African National Congress in South Africa during the fight against apartheid. This absence of a well-established infrastructure and defined leadership makes it challenging for Iran to envision and work towards a clear alternative to the current regime.
Currently, in Iran, power is expected to be wielded by the IRGC due to the absence of many top leaders. The IRGC has played a significant role in supporting the regime for many years and is accountable only to the supreme leader. Besides dealing with external threats, the IRGC is also responsible for maintaining domestic order.
The IRGC's influence goes beyond just their military capabilities. A lot of wealthy individuals in Iran, who have gained advantages from having access to the government's resources during times of sanctions, also have influential roles within the IRGC. This could give them a significant amount of control over the selection of the next supreme leader.
The IRGC was formed after the Islamic revolution in Iran to protect the new regime. It was created from different paramilitary groups that played a role in overthrowing the previous shah. Despite initial efforts to merge it with the regular army, the IRGC solidified its authority during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s.
Currently, the military of Iran consists of approximately 150,000 to 190,000 troops, with divisions in the army, navy, air force, and intelligence services. Additionally, it plays a significant role in Iran's civilian economy.
Despite the assumption that several of its top leaders were killed in the recent airstrikes, the IRGC continues to supervise the Basij, which functions as a visible, street-level, domestic police force.
The Basij, which means "mobilization" in Farsi, is a volunteer organization that recruits members from various parts of the country, particularly those from lower-income and more conservative backgrounds. Their main responsibilities include supporting the government and promoting Islamic values within society.
In a time of great danger, the Iranian government is working discreetly to avoid falling apart and to show that there is still stability. It is uncertain if their actions will prove to be effective.
Leila Gharagozlou from CNN helped provide information for this report.
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